Decision-making based on hydrometeorological forecasts
Water managers make forecasts or predictions of river water levels and river water discharge several times a day. Based on these forecasts, choices are made to ensure water management is as efficient and safe as possible, and to minimise negative impacts. There is a degree of uncertainty throughout every step of this process, from model forecasts to final decision-making. Deltares helps organisations to better deal with these uncertainties and make well-informed decisions.
We use computer models to make weather and water forecasts, which are then evaluated and adjusted by a human (‘the forecaster’). The human ultimately makes a decision, such as whether or not to evacuate when water levels rise, based on the adjusted forecast. This involves uncertainties; how can these managed? How can we ensure that the final decision is made as objectively and purely as possible? Deltares helps organisations (such as crisis organisations) to better deal with uncertainties and make well-considered choices, also known as 'Forecast Informed Decision-Making'.
Decision consequences
As climate change advances, it becomes increasingly important to make good forecasts, deal with the associated uncertainties, take decisions, and to clearly communicate them. Doing so also becomes increasingly challenging. This is even more the case in high-pressured situations where decision-making can have huge consequences. So how can good forecasts and decisions amidst uncertainty be made in such a way that the forecaster (the human) adds value? Deltares offers the expertise and techniques to tackle these challenges through the Forecast Informed Decision-Making Lab.
The Forecast Informed Decision-Making Lab (FIDLab) is a facility of Deltares and partners in which we gather knowledge and set up training courses or projects to work on various topics within this theme. These include: 1) the influence of the human forecaster on the quality of forecasts, 2) 'dealing with' uncertainties, and 3) Forecast Informed Decision-Making. In this way, Deltares supports organisations in optimising the forecast, decision and response chain.
The role of the forecaster
In addition to computer models, human insights are crucial for accurate forecasts. FIDLab investigates how subjective elements can contribute to the accuracy of forecasts and how knowledge from decision science can be applied to hydrometeorological forecasts. However, human interpretations of forecasts also come with drawbacks, such as biases and inconsistencies that can affect the forecasts’ reliability. It is therefore important to be aware of both the advantages and possible vulnerabilities and to develop strategies that strengthen the forecast as a whole. We explore the role of the forecaster on the value of forecast in an organisation and offer training to raise awareness of this.
Dealing with uncertainties
Uncertainty is an inevitable aspect of forecasts. It is essential to interpret and communicate these uncertainties correctly, both graphically and in natural language, to avoid misunderstandings and errors. We help organisations manage these uncertainties through advanced methods.
Visualisations
The future is uncertain and hydrological forecasts can only partially reduce that uncertainty. We must therefore carefully visualise these predictions. Visualisations include multiple dimensions such as reference time, validity time, variable, location, and probability. There is no single visualisation that can answer all questions, so a phased approach is required to:
- understand the question: identify the specific question to be answered.
- use the right tools: choose tools that accurately reflect uncertainty.
Such an approach helps create visualisations that specifically fit the problem. Deltares can help integrate this process into your decision-making.
Uncertainty in human judgement and decision-making
Human intervention plays a crucial role in the forecast-decision-response chain. Biases and noise in human judgements can significantly affect the quality of decisions. This uncertainty in decision-making often comes on top of the already present uncertainty in the subjective forecast used to make the decision. Deltares investigates how cognitive bias and noise affect decision-making and develops strategies to reduce these effects.
Collaboration
Deltares works with various partners to continuously improve knowledge and technologies. This enables us to develop innovative solutions that can strengthen business operations in organisations. For FIDLab, we are looking for new partners who want to work with us on pioneering projects and research in the field of forecasts, judgement and decision-making amid uncertainty in water management. Are you an expert, or do you work for an organisation that shares our passion for improving decision-making and want to contribute to innovative solutions that make the future safer and more predictable? If so, we would love to hear from you. Please get in touch with one of our experts
