Forecasting and warning
Flood risks can be reduced but never completely eliminated. The residual risk can be addressed in part by providing early warnings about imminent high water levels. Flood forecasting systems play an essential role here. These systems combine current weather conditions with knowledge about the water system in near real time. Deltares supplies the software, knowledge and experience needed to operationalise those systems and therefore make a positive contribution to better flood risk management.
Effective forecasting systems are based on knowledge about the weather and climate, about the water system and about the ICT techniques that combine knowledge and data in near real time. Deltares has that knowledge in the field of forecasting high water levels on rivers, along the coast and at sea.
The forecasting systems are often operated by government authorities with a responsibility to ‘forecast and warn’. Examples include the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat, the British Environment Agency, the U.S. National Weather Service and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
We develop effective forecasting systems in a process of co-creation in collaboration with the organisations that need to use the systems. Clients contribute knowledge about their specific water systems. Deltares contributes knowledge about how best to incorporate those water systems in an operational system. And we also contribute our experience with co-creation.
In addition to clients’ forecasting systems, Deltares also provides its own forecasts. We do this using our world-wide coastal, marine and river forecasting systems. The purchasers of that data are organisations that decide not to operate systems themselves, but who still need to make decisions that involve forecasts.
Deltares also develops knowledge in the field of decision-making: how do people work with the information provided by the systems? How do you prevent unconscious risk aversion or risk-seeking behaviour? How do you include expert knowledge in decision-making in the best way possible?
