Bayesian Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments (BEWARE)

Deltares collaborated with the U.S. Geological Survey to generalise previous site-specific studies of flooding on coral atolls and to develop a new approach to estimating flood risk on low-lying tropical islands. Using the wave model XBeach (which is open source), we developed a large synthetic database of numerical simulations representing a large range of realistic reef geometries, and wave and sea-level conditions. We then entered the model results in the BEWARE (Bayesian Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) network, a probabilistic model which estimates a range and distribution of likely outputs for a given set of inputs. The resulting tool allows us to make real-time flood predictions based on predicted offshore wave or sea-level conditions, and the unique characteristics of a given island.