Dune erosion from extreme storms predicted with AI
Along the Dutch coast there are more than 250 kilometres of dunes. This is not only a beautiful natural area, but also a vital natural buffer against storm surges and floods. What happens if this buffer fails? Processes such as dune erosion and flooding can strike in a matter of hours, with major consequences. At Deltares, we want to better understand and predict these processes to keep our coast safe. Can artificial intelligence (AI) help us do this?
Enhancing models with AI
Deltares has been using advanced models such as XBeach for decades to calculate how coastal waters move and how dunes and structures react during storms, such as through erosion, inundation and scouring. This model is used in research projects, guidance and advice, such as the evaluation of dune safety in complex situations along the Dutch coast and for retrospective analysis of the effects of hurricanes in the US, for example.
‘Can we enhance our existing models with AI, giving us even faster and more accurate insights into these complex dynamics?‘ wonders Koen van Asselt, expert in Deltares’ Coastal Hazards team. ‘We are investigating how to mimic the results of a storm and dune erosion model, such as XBeach, with a data-driven Machine Learning model. By developing a so-called ‘meta-model’ - an AI model that learns patterns from existing data - we can partially skip heavy calculations.’
How does a neural network work?
The secret lies in a smart algorithm, a neural network. ‘Such a network consists of artificial neurons inspired by the brain,’ Koen continues. ‘Through constant feedback, the network learns to recognise patterns better and better, just like our brains. This makes it possible to make estimates based on new data at lightning speed. This allows us to calculate new scenarios at lightning speed and identify coastal bottlenecks earlier,’ Koen explains.
AI does not replace traditional models, but enhances them. ‘The power of AI lies in speed and pattern recognition,’ says Koen. ‘That helps us identify risks earlier and do smarter research.’
I am fascinated by dunes. We have to keep realising that we live below sea level. This brings risks, but it also offers wonderful opportunities!
Koen van Asselt, junior advisor/researcher Deltares
Endless possibilities with AI
By integrating AI into our work, Deltares is bringing together traditional modelling and data-driven technology. ‘The possibilities are endless,’ says Koen. ‘The challenge is to convert our hydraulic engineering knowledge into an AI model, so that it becomes even better and more efficient. This pioneering fits perfectly with a knowledge institute like Deltares.’
Working together for protection
With AI, Deltares not only wants to increase its own knowledge, but also to work together with other parties to better protect vulnerable areas worldwide from flooding. By continuously experimenting with AI, we continue to push the boundaries of what is possible, for safer and better protected coastal areas.