Sediment exchange between the Wadden Sea and North Sea Coast : modelling based on ASMITA

The sediment exchange between the Dutch Wadden Sea and the North Sea coastal zone is simulated using the aggregated morphodynamic model ASMITA for four future sea-level rise scenarios: sea-level rise rate equal to 2, 4, 6 and 8 mm/y in 2100. The simulations have been carried out using existing ASMITA models for the various tidal inlets, as well as with updated models in which the parameter settings are based on the latest insights of the sediment exchanges through the tidal inlets. In addition, detailed background information of the AS MITA models is provided, and a theoretical analysis is carried to better understand the response of tidal basins to sea-level rise. This analysis supports the interpretation of the model results. It is concluded that the effect of accelerated sea-level rise on sediment import rates will not be noticeable before 2040, i.e. 20 year later than the start of the sea-level rise acceleration. The difference in the import rate between the four sea-level rise scenarios is limited until 2100, and no substantial increase of the import with respect to the present situation is expected until 2100.